Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday asked the Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled states to carve a niche for their governments in some or other sector of governance and called for giving topmost priority to 'ease of living' of people.
The Nifty IT has been one of the worst-performing indices on the bourses this calendar year. Rising concerns of a potential global recession, which investors fear can dampen demand for export-facing domestic information technology (IT) giants, have sent the index down over 30 per cent on a year-to-date basis. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index has shed 2.8 per cent during the period, reveals data by ACE Equity.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the GDP growth forecast at 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal but cautioned that the economic recovery is not yet strong enough to be self-sustaining and durable.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Having exposure to international funds and gold is a must for those who have foreign currency-denominated goals.
5G networks in India can be deployed in three months but in limited areas as the optical fibre based infrastructure to support the technology is not ready yet, telecom industry players said on Tuesday. Nokia India head of marketing and corporate affairs Amit Marwah said that India has to take a call on deployment of 5G services otherwise it will miss to take advantage of the next generation technology that it can bring for the economy.
The company, which in the previous quarter announced former Capgemini top executive Thierry Delaporte as its new chief executive officer and managing director, is looking at improving its performance in coming quarters.
Here's the full text of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's address to a joint session of the United States Congress, delivered on Thursday.
The Lok Sabha elections in 2024 are not a consideration when it comes to monetary policymaking, said Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das to underscore the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation. "It's not possible for me to comment what we do in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), but one thing I can tell and I would like to make it very clear-that the fact of elections coming up in 2024 is not a factor at all so far as monetary policymaking is concerned. "Monetary policymaking is for checking (and) controlling inflation," Das said at the Business Standard, BFSI Insight Summit.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
Highlights of Economic Survey 2020-21, tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday.
By driving a hard bargain with Russia in procuring crude oil at the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of G7 and Washington is "comfortable" with New Delhi over its approach in addressing issues relating to energy security, a top Biden administration official said.
India is much better placed today to deal with future waves of the pandemic relative to the first wave, RBI deputy governor Michael Patra said.
83% of the CEOS plan to hire more in the new year.
India's manufacturing sector activity was largely flat in April, as rates of growth for new orders and output eased to eight-month lows amid the intensification of the COVID-19 crisis, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 55.5 in April, little changed from March's reading of 55.4. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Highlighting the role of MSMEs in enhancing exports and helping the country achieve self reliance, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari on Monday said India does not need to import from China. "Already in automobile sector, in many sectors now, in agriculture, automobiles, everywhere, we have already found the solutions. Now we don't need to import from China," said the minister. He observed that India was exporting a lot of items instead of importing them.
India's GDP is within the striking distance of attaining positive growth, the Reserve Bank said observing that the letter "V" in the V-shaped recovery stands for vaccine. The Indian government launched the world's biggest vaccination drive on January 16 to protect people from COVID-19. "What will 2021 look like? The shape of the recovery will be V-shaped after all and the 'V' stands for vaccine," said an article on the 'state of economy' in the RBI's January Bulletin. India has launched the biggest vaccination drive in the world, backed by its comparative advantage of having the largest vaccine manufacturing capacity in the world and a rich experience of mass inoculation drives against polio and measles.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
Stressing that the Covid virus may continue to transmit for a "very long time", senior WHO official Poonam Khetrapal Singh says the level of immunity in a community, through vaccination and previous infection, will determine whether it will become endemic in the long run.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 58.9 in October to a three-month low of 56.3 in November, indicating that the manufacturing sector growth remained strong, despite losing traction.
The agency welcomed the Rs 1.70-lakh crore package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman earlier in the day but said more measures like loan forbearances for small businesses and households are necessary.
Moody's Investors Service has said that although there is only a moderate direct impact of an expected European recession for most Asian (ex-Japan) corporate issuers of debt, indirect risks are rising on account of weak exports.
India's services sector activities eased to a three-month low in April, as the rise in business activity was constrained by the pandemic and sentiment towards growth prospects faded, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell to 54 in April from 54.6 in March, the slowest increase in output in three months. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
As US President Joe Biden launched a new trade deal with 12 Indo-Pacific nations, including India, to enhance trade, economic and investment opportunities, China, which sees the pact as a threat to its dominance in the region, went on the offensive against it, promising more opening up, while the official media here termed it as "economic Nato".
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
'The coronavirus epidemic highlights the need to start thinking more actively about multilateral coordination, including, but not confined to, health emergencies and climate uncertainties,' says Rathin Roy.
India's economy, estimated to contract by 6.9 per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, is forecast to record a "stronger recovery" in 2021 and grow by 5 per cent, according to a UN report which said the country's current fiscal year budget points to a shift towards demand-side stimulus, with an uptick in public investment. The report, 'Out of the frying pan ...Into the fire?' published Thursday as an update to the Trade and Development Report 2020 by UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said the global economy is set to grow by 4.7 per cent this year, faster than the 4.3 per cent predicted in September 2020, thanks in part to a stronger recovery in the US, where progress in distributing vaccines and a fresh fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion are expected to boost consumer spending.
FMCG major Hindustan Unilever Ltd on Thursday reported a 10.7 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit at Rs 2,100 crore for the first quarter ended June, 2021 led by a volume-based growth despite challenging circumstances due to the second wave of the pandemic. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 1,897 crore in the April-June quarter of the previous fiscal. Net sales during the quarter under review stood at Rs 11,996 crore, up 13.49 per cent, as against Rs 10,570 crore in the corresponding period a year ago, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) said in a regulatory filing.
Talking about dealing with the border issue faced by India, Jaishankar, without naming any country or going into details, said, "You know again we did what we had to do. There was a very active debate which still continues to this day. It is natural for people to offer advice, often on matters which they may not have particular knowledge of, that are a human trait. But again if there was what came through it was that we were resolute, we were strong about protecting our interests."
In the opinion piece after the summit, the leaders said the cooperation, known as "the Quad," was born in crisis. It became a diplomatic dialogue in 2007 and was reborn in 2017.
'Several businesses like entertainment, hospitality, travel etc would never be the same again.'
China's post COVID-19 pandemic economic rebound showed signs of slowdown as the economy grew at 7.9 per cent in the second quarter compared to a record 18.3 per cent in Q1, while the GDP expanded 12.7 per cent year on year in the first half amid the continued global spread of the coronavirus and unbalanced domestic recovery. In the second quarter, the GDP of the second largest economy in the world grew 7.9 per cent year on year, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS) on Thursday showed. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.3 per cent in Q2.
'I hope the trend is sustainable and that economic activity accelerates going forward.'
Citing India's commitment to deep economic reforms and ease of doing business, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Monday that this is the best time to invest in the country as policy-making is focussed on the needs for the next 25 years for a 'clean and green' as well as 'sustainable and reliable' growth period. In his special address to the World Economic Forum's online Davos Agenda 2022 summit, Modi underlined a host of reform measures undertaken by his government to stress that it has worked to reduce the administration's interference in business by deregulating many sectors and to clear the way for free trade agreements with different countries. India was once associated with "license raaj", he noted and highlighted the measures, including reduction of corporate tax to boost business and doing away with over 25,000 compliance requirements.
Despite falling exports, the Indian economy would grow by 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal on the back of strong domestic market and resilience, economic think-tank CMIE said.
Marking its quickest rise in over seven years, India's services sector activity expanded for the fifth successive month in February, tracking spike in business orders, renewed export demand and strengthening business confidence, a monthly survey showed on Wednesday. The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index rose from 55.5 in January to 57.5 in February. This is the fastest expansion in services output since January 2013.
